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What a Trump Presidency​ ​Means for Latin America

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Kathy Bostjancic

Head of U.S. Macro Investor Services

Oxford Economics

PRESENTATION SUMMARY: One of the main characteristics of a Trump presidency will be the unusually elevated degree of policy and political uncertainty. In our base case forecast we estimate that the Trump Administration and Republican-controlled Congress will usher in a substantial $1.2 trillion fiscal stimulus package that underpins real US GDP growth of around 2.3% in 2017 and further boosts growth to 2.5% in 2018. We look for the pro-growth fiscal and deregulation measures to outweigh a more trade protectionist stance and tighter immigration controls. Moderately faster economic growth should propel a moderate rise in inflation to 2.2% Q4/Q4 in 2017 from a 1.8% Q4/Q4 rate in 2016. However, there are large bands of uncertainty surrounding our forecasts due to the timing, size and composition of prospective fiscal stimulus, corporate tax reform, and possible changes to other economic policies such as trade and immigration.

 

Oliver Wack

Director, Global Risk Analysis

Control Risks

PRESENTATION SUMMARY: With little to no statements by the president-elect on the region both during the campaign and since the election, there is considerable anxiety across Latin America’s governments with regard to what to expect once Mr. Trump takes office. Oliver will discuss both how Latin America as a region and specific countries within that region will feature in the Trump administration’s list of priorities. Oliver will focus, among others, on what this anxiety means for the Colombian peace process, the crisis in Venezuela, and the pre-election year in Mexico. He will also share Control Risks’ assessment of the implications for the regional business environment.

Registration and Networking: 12:00 – 12:30 PM
Lunch and Program: 12:30 – 2:00 PM
Members & guests: $40
Non-members: $75
Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP
1540 Broadway, 22nd Floor
(Entrance on 45th Street)
New York, NY 10036
For more information, email programs@andean-us.com,
or call 212-233-7776
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